S&P Global Energy (formerly S&P Global Commodity Insights) released its Top Trends report identifying the pivotal developments shaping clean energy technology, sustainability and growth in global energy markets in 2026. The report has been produced by analysts of its Horizons team, which provides comprehensive energy expansion and sustainability intelligence, from big picture trends to asset level insights.
“In 2026, AI’s surging power demand growth will be testing grid limits, revenue models and sustainability goals,” said Eduard Sala de Vedruna, Vice President and Head of Research, Horizons, S&P Global Energy.
“The pace of progress will depend on unlocking new capacity and flexibility, with grid modernization a key constraint on energy security and competitiveness,” he added.
S&P Global Energy Horizons Top Trends for 2026, tackling themes from AI’s rapid growth, geopolitical realignments, and mounting climate risks, highlighting how energy expansion and sustainability are necessarily interlinked.
“The interplay of AI-driven demand, grid bottlenecks, evolving procurement strategies, and rising climate risks highlights how energy expansion and sustainability are not parallel ambitions, but intertwined imperatives,” said Leanne Todd, Senior Vice President, Global Head of Horizons, S&P Global Energy.
As AI uptake soars in 2026, energy supply and sustainability commitments face a breaking point
S&P Global Energy Horizon’s high growth view shows global datacenter power demand increasing 17% to 2026 and 14% per year through 2030, reaching potential demand of over 2,200 TWh, equivalent to India’s current electricity use. This surge is testing grid limits and sustainability goals, with 38% of assessed companies with datacenter operations lacking net-zero commitments. Major tech firms including Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are exploring new options to reconcile their power needs without compromising on their climate targets as aggregate US datacenter capital spending approaches $500 billion in 2026.
Global SAF capacity expands by one third in 2026: Asia leads, Europe pays.
Global dedicated sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity is expected to rise by about one third to eight million metric tons (MMt), though the speed of growth slows compared to the near doubling seen annually from 2022 to 2025.
More than half of global SAF capacity will be concentrated in Asia despite modest regional demand, as producers target a European market facing supply shortfalls. Beyond 2026, capacity could increase eightfold to 42 MMt by 2030 if announced projects materialize, though only 7.3 MMt have reached final investment decision.
As emissions could drive a 2.3°C rise by 2040, adaptation shifts from optional to essential in 2026
Extreme weather and climate hazards are creating escalating risks for infrastructure, physical assets, and operations. S&P Global Energy Horizons projects annual climate-related costs of ~$885 billion for large publicly traded companies in the 2030s. Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning show patchy uptake across sectors, with an evident adaptation gap even in industries where risk assessment is more common. The increasingly urgent question is no longer whether companies will adapt, but how quickly.